Assessment of Fire Hazard Level of the Objects of Protection based on the Methods of Statistical Data Analysis


Transition from strict standardization of fire safety requirements to flexible or object-oriented standardization increases the need for the development and practical use of methods for assessing the fire hazard level of the objects of protection. For such an assessment, based on statistical data, the number of people who died in fires is usually compared with some indicator (number of fires, number of objects of a certain category, number of the personnel). An alternative approach to the assessment of fire hazard level is considered. Instead of the indicator «the number of people died in fires», it is proposed to use the indicator «number of fires with loss of life». To justify this approach, an analysis of data on the number of fires with fatalities in the Russian Federation for 2012–2018 was carried out. Statistical data was used on the total number of fires and the number of fires with the death of people at the industrial objects, in public buildings of various functional purposes, in single-family and multi-apartment residential buildings.

The statistical distributions of the indicators «number of fires with fatalities» and «number of people perished in fires» for different categories of objects are built. The approximation of the obtained distributions is performed by the least square method using the standard normal distribution. The conducted analysis shows that the indicator «number of fires with loss of life» is more stable, the corresponding distributions are well described by the normal law with standard parameters. Similar distribution for the number of lost in fires has a prominent left-side asymmetry, and its parameters differ from the standard normal distribution.

Distributions of the average annual number of fires, depending on the number of people died in one fire, have «tails» which difficult to describe by any of the known one-parameter or two-parameter distribution laws. The obtained results show that the use of the indicator «number of fires with people fatality» should give a more precise assessment of the fire hazard level of the objects to be protected.

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DOI: 10.24000/0409-2961-2020-6-35-39
Year: 2020
Issue num: June
Keywords : object of protection death fire hazard level number of fires distribution law level of significance
  • Poroshin A.A.
    Poroshin A.A.
    Cand. Sci. (Eng), Head of the Department, FGBU VNIIPO of EMERCOM of Russia, Balashikha, Russia
  • Kharin V.V.
    Kharin V.V.
    Head of the Department FGBU VNIIPO EMERCOM of Russia, Balashikha, Russia
  • Kondashov A.A.
    Kondashov A.A.
    Cand. Sci. (Phys.-Math.), Lead Researcher, FGBU VNIIPO EMERCOM of Russia, Balashikha, Russia
  • Bobrinev E.V.
    Bobrinev E.V.
    Cand. Sci. (Biol.), Lead Researcher FGBU VNIIPO EMERCOM of Russia, Balashikha, Russia
  • Udavtsova E.Yu.
    Udavtsova E.Yu.
    Cand. Sci. (Eng.), Lead Research Assistant FGBU VNIIPO EMERCOM of Russia, Balashikha, Russia