Assessment of Fire Hazard Level of the Objects of Protection based on the Methods of Statistical Data Analysis


Annotation:

Transition from strict standardization of fire safety requirements to flexible or object-oriented standardization increases the need for the development and practical use of methods for assessing the fire hazard level of the objects of protection. For such an assessment, based on statistical data, the number of people who died in fires is usually compared with some indicator (number of fires, number of objects of a certain category, number of the personnel). An alternative approach to the assessment of fire hazard level is considered. Instead of the indicator «the number of people died in fires», it is proposed to use the indicator «number of fires with loss of life». To justify this approach, an analysis of data on the number of fires with fatalities in the Russian Federation for 2012–2018 was carried out. Statistical data was used on the total number of fires and the number of fires with the death of people at the industrial objects, in public buildings of various functional purposes, in single-family and multi-apartment residential buildings.

The statistical distributions of the indicators «number of fires with fatalities» and «number of people perished in fires» for different categories of objects are built. The approximation of the obtained distributions is performed by the least square method using the standard normal distribution. The conducted analysis shows that the indicator «number of fires with loss of life» is more stable, the corresponding distributions are well described by the normal law with standard parameters. Similar distribution for the number of lost in fires has a prominent left-side asymmetry, and its parameters differ from the standard normal distribution.

Distributions of the average annual number of fires, depending on the number of people died in one fire, have «tails» which difficult to describe by any of the known one-parameter or two-parameter distribution laws. The obtained results show that the use of the indicator «number of fires with people fatality» should give a more precise assessment of the fire hazard level of the objects to be protected.

References:
  1. Jonsson A., Bergqvist A., Andersson R. Assessing the number of fire fatalities in a defined population. Journal of Safety Research. 2015. Vol. 55. pp. 99–103. DOI: 10.1016/j.jsr.2015.10.001
  2. Mulvaney C., Kendrick D., Towner E., Brussoni M., Hayes M., Powell J., Robertson S., Ward H. Fatal and non-fatal fire injuries in England 1995–2004: Time trends and inequalities by age, sex and area deprivation. Journal of Public Health. 2009. Vol. 31. Iss. 1. pp. 154–161. DOI: 10.1093/pubmed/fdn103
  3. Jonsson A., Runefors M., Särdqvist S., Nilson F. Fire-related mortality in Sweden: temporal trends 1952 to 2013. Fire Technology. 2016. Vol. 52. Iss. 6. pp. 1697–1707. DOI: 10.1007/s10694-015-0551-5
  4. Xiong Lin, Bruck D., Ball M. Comparative investigation of «survival» and fatality factors in accidental residential fires. Fire Safety Journal. 2015. Vol. 73. pp. 37–47. DOI: 10.1016/j.firesaf.2015.02.003
  5. Troitzsch J.H. Fires, statistics, ignition sources, and passive fire protection measures. Journal of Fire Sciences. 2016. Vol. 34. Iss. 3. pp. 171–198. DOI: 10.1177/0734904116636642
  6. Clark A., Smith J., Conroy C. Domestic fire risk: a narrative review of social science literature and implications for further research. Journal of Risk Research. 2015. Vol. 18. Iss. 9. pp. 1113–1129. DOI: 10.1080/13669877.2014.913660
  7. Giebułtowicz J., Rużycka M., Wroczyński P., Purser D.A., Stec A.A. Analysis of fire deaths in Poland and influence of smoke toxicity. Forensic Science International. 2017. Vol. 277. pp. 77–87. DOI: 10.1016/j.forsciint.2017.05.018
  8. Turner S.L., Johnson R.D., Weightman A.L., Rodgers S.E., Arthur G., Bailey R., Lyons R.A. Risk factors associated with unintentional house fire incidents, injuries and deaths in high-income countries: a systematic review. Injury Prevention. 2017. Vol. 23. Iss. 2. pp. 131–137. DOI: 10.1136/injuryprev-2016-042174
  9. Yakush S.E., Esmanskiy R.K. Analysis of fire risks. Pt. I: approaches and methods. Problemy analiza riska = Issues of Risk Analysis. 2009. Vol. 6. № 3. pp. 8–27. (In Russ.).
  10. Brushlinskiy N.N., Sokolov S.V. About fire statistics and fire risks. Pozharovzryvobezopasnost = Fire and Explosion Safety. 2011. Vol. 20. № 4. pp. 40–48. (In Russ.).
  11. Bykov A.I. On limit values of fire risk assessment and risk of accidents when assessing the severity of gas transportation facilities. Pozharovzryvobezopasnost = Fire and Explosion Safety. 2012. Vol. 21. № 5. pp. 9–12. (In Russ.).
  12. Abduragimov I.M. Once again about impossibility to perform calculations of fire risks by deterministic methods. Pozharovzryvobezopasnost = Fire and Explosion Safety. 2013. Vol. 22. № 6. pp. 13–23. (In Russ.).
  13. Firsov A.V., Kryukov E.V., Kharisov G.H. About the regulated level of an individual fire risk. Pozharovzryvobezopasnost = Fire and Explosion Safety. 2012. Vol. 21. № 9. pp. 14–16. (In Russ.).
  14. Meshalkin E.A., Burbakh V.A., Vantyakshev N.N. Usage of methods of calculation for estimation of fire risks. Pozharovzryvobezopasnost = Fire and Explosion Safety. 2015. Vol. 24. № 2. pp. 23–31. (In Russ.).
  15. Brushlinskiy N.N., Sokolov S.V. Individual fire risk: concept and calculation. Problemy bezopasnosti i chrezvychaynykh situatsiy = Problems of safety and emergencies. 2013. № 5. pp. 30–41. (In Russ.).
  16. Matyushin A.V., Poroshin A.A., Bobrinev E.V., Kondashov A.A., Varlamkin A.V., Surina G.L., Oleynikov V.T., Tregubova V.I., Gorshkova I.N., Matyushin Yu.A. Information and analytical support for the activities of fire departments operational units. Pozharnaja bezopasnost = Fire Safety. 2007. № 2. pp. 34–41. (In Russ.).
  17. Matyushin A.V., Poroshin A.A., Shishkov M.V., Bobrinev E.V., Galkina E.Yu. Assessment of the occupational risk and justification of the required reserve of fire-fighters number. Problemy analiza riska = Issues of Risk Analysis. 2009. Vol. 6. № 2. pp. 6–13. (In Russ.).
  18. Poroshin A.A., Kharin V.V., Bobrinev E.V., Kondashov A.A., Udavtsova E.Yu. Risks of death and trauma of people in fires. Vestnik NTsBZhD = Bulletin of NTsBZhD. 2019. № 2 (40). pp. 127–132. (In Russ.).
  19. Yakush S.E., Esmanskiy R.K. Analysis of fire risks. Pt. II: problems of application. Problemy analiza riska = Issues of Risk Analysis. 2009. Vol. 6. № 4. pp. 26–46. (In Russ.).
  20. Poroshin A.A. Fire safety of people. Pt. 1. From a tolerable level to real statistics. Pozharnaja bezopasnost = Fire Safety. 2004. № 1. pp. 59–70. (In Russ.).
  21. Operational data on fires. Available at: https://sites.google. com/site/statistikapozaro/home/rezultaty-rascetov/operativnye-dannye-po-pozaram (accessed: January 13, 2020). (In Russ.).
  22. Gordienko D.M. Fires and fire safety in 2018: statistics digest. Moscow: VNIIPO, 2019. 125 p. (In Russ.).
  23. Baldin K.V., Bashlykov V.N., Rukosuev A.V. Theory of probability and mathematical Statistics: textbook. 2-e izd. Moscow: Dashkov i Ko, 2018. 472 p. (In Russ.).
DOI: 10.24000/0409-2961-2020-6-35-39
Year: 2020
Issue num: June
Keywords : object of protection death fire hazard level number of fires distribution law level of significance
Authors:
  • Poroshin A.A.
    Poroshin A.A.
    Cand. Sci. (Eng), Head of the Department, poroshinjob@yandex.ru FGBU VNIIPO of EMERCOM of Russia, Balashikha, Russia
  • Kharin V.V.
    Kharin V.V.
    Head of the Department FGBU VNIIPO EMERCOM of Russia, Balashikha, Russia
  • Kondashov A.A.
    Kondashov A.A.
    Cand. Sci. (Phys.-Math.), Lead Researcher, otdel_1_3@mail.ru FGBU VNIIPO EMERCOM of Russia, Balashikha, Russia
  • Bobrinev E.V.
    Bobrinev E.V.
    Cand. Sci. (Biol.), Lead Researcher FGBU VNIIPO EMERCOM of Russia, Balashikha, Russia
  • Udavtsova E.Yu.
    Udavtsova E.Yu.
    Cand. Sci. (Eng.), Lead Research Assistant FGBU VNIIPO EMERCOM of Russia, Balashikha, Russia