The issue of ensuring fire safety at industrial enterprises is, to a significant extent, associated with risks occurring in electrical engineering systems. Traditional approaches to ensuring fire safety of electrical installations in buildings, based on separate control of electrical parameters of the regime and recurrent diagnostics of insulation condition, cannot provide a comprehensive risk assessment or prevent fire in advance. The study is dedicated to the development of an integrated monitoring concept aiming to identify fire-hazardous conditions at the early and subcritical stage.
Notably, the degradation of polymer insulation is a nonlinear process whose rate is determined by the dynamic interactions among operational factors, and separate control of these factors does not account for the cumulative nature of fire-hazardous wear. This creates “blind spots”: when an electrical installation formally complies with electrical parameter standards but its insulation resources are exhausted, or when diagnostics registers condition deterioration but does not associate it with the cause, namely the history of real loads.
The proposed concept is based on the synthesis of fundamental physical and mathematical models of dielectric aging. The key element of the approach is the calculation of the integral index of accumulated fire-hazardous damage as a function of the history of applied loads, whereas a critical damage is interpreted as the threshold of exhaustion of fire safety resources, and when it is reached, the probability of ignition source becomes unacceptably high.
A structural scheme of the concept is proposed, whose implementation will be practically significant for the transition from reactive to preventive strategies of fire risk management in electrical installations, as, based on the continuous data analysis, it helps not only to state the fact of degradation but also to forecast a residual safety resource, forming reasonable warning signals to prevent emergencies.
Fires and fire safety in 2024. Statistics of fires and their consequences: information and analytical volume. Balashikha: FGBU VNIIPO MCHS Rossii, 2025. 112 p. (In Russ).
2. Смелков Г.И., Копылов Н.П., Пехотиков В.А. Актуальные вопросы оценки и обеспечения пожарной безопасности электропроводок // Безопасность труда в промышленности. 2019. № 6. С. 38–43. DOI: 10.24000/0409-2961-2019-6-38-44
Smelkov G.I., Kopylov N.P., Pekhotikov V.A. Current Issues of Assessment and Ensuring Electrical Wiring Fire Safety. Bezopasnost Truda v Promyshlennosti = Occupational Safety in Industry. 2019. № 6. pp. 38–44. (In Russ). DOI: 10.24000/0409-2961-2019-6-38-44
3. Thai H.D., Van Le N.B., Lee D., Huh J.H. A survey of Electrical Fire Causes Assessment Technology. Available at: https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?tp=&arnumber=10620202 (accessed: November 1, 2025).
4. Снижение пожарной опасности кабельных изделий с изоляцией и оболочками из ПВХ материалов / Г.И. Смелков, А.И. Рябиков, В.И. Ильин, Т.М. Дмитриева // Пожарная безопасность. 2011. № 2. С. 66–72.
Smelkov G.I., Ryabikov A.I., Ilin V.I., Dmitriyeva T.M. Decrease in fire hazard of cable products with insulations and covers from PVC materials. Pozharnaya bezopasnost = Fire Safety. 2011. № 2. рр. 66–72. (In Russ).
5. Smelkov G.I., Ryabikov A.I. The analysis of the statistical data about fire danger of electric products. Energobezopasnost i energosberezheniye = Energy Safety and Energy Economy. 2009. № 1 (25). рр. 4–8.
6. Оценка влияния горения кабельных линий в кабельных коробах на температуру ограждающих конструкций зданий и сооружений / М.В. Гравит, М.Д. Антонов, А.А. Варламкин, В.А. Прусаков // Безопасность труда в промышленности. 2025. № 4. С. 36–42. DOI: 10.24000/0409-2961-2025-4-36-42
Gravit M.V., Antonov M.D., Varlamkin A.A., Prusakov V.A. Assessment of the Impact of Burning Cable Lines in Cable Ducts on the Temperature of Enclosing Structures of Buildings and Facilities. Bezopasnost Truda v Promyshlennosti = Occupational Safety in Industry. 2025. № 4 pp. 36–42. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.24000/0409-2961-2025-4-36-42
7. Shi B., Yang C., Long H. Research on the Fire Hazard of Different Cables Based on Cone Calorimetry. Fire. 2023. Vol. 6. Iss. 11. DOI: 10.3390/fire6110431
8. Huang X., Nakamura Y. A Review of Fundamental Combustion Phenomena in Wire Fires. Fire Technology. 2020. Vol. 56. pp. 315–360. DOI: 10.1007/s10694-019-00918-5
9. Канискин В.А. Влияние эксплуатационных факторов на электрические свойства и диагностика полимерной изоляции кабелей: дис. ... д-ра техн. наук. СПб, 1999. 283 с.
Kaniskin V.A. The impact of operational factors on electric properties and the diagnostics of cable polymer insulation: thesis … Doctor of Technical Sciences. Saint Petersburg, 1999. 283 р. (In Russ.).
10. Дубяго М.Н., Полуянович Н.К. Метод оценки и прогнозирования остаточного ресурса изоляции кабельных линий // Известия ЮФУ. Технические науки. 2019. № 3 (205). C. 132–143.
Dubyago M.N., Poluyanovich N.K. The method of estimation and forecasting of a residual resource of isolation in cable lines. Izvestiya YuFU. Tekhnicheskiye nauki = Izvestiya SFedU. Engineering Sciences. 2019. № 3 (205). pp. 132–143. (In Russ.).
11. Бирюлин В.И., Куделина Д.В., Горлов А.Н. Анализ нагрева кабельных линий токами высших гармоник и интергармоник // Вестник Казанского государственного энергетического университета. 2020. № 2 (46). С. 61–67.
Biryulin V.I., Kudelina D.V., Gorlov A.N. Analysis of the cable lines heating by currents of high harmonics and interharmonics. Vestnik Kazanskogo gosudarstvennogo energeticheskogo universiteta = Kazan state power engineering university bulletin. 2020. № 2 (46). pp. 61–67. (In Russ.).
12. Боков Г.В., Рябиков А.И., Кузнецова Е.В. Пожарная опасность электрооборудования жилых и общественных зданий, обусловленная появлением в электрической сети высших гармоник // Пожарная безопасность. 2014. № 4. С. 73–77.
Bokov G.V., Ryabikov A.I., Kuznetsova E.V. Fire hazard of the electrical equipment caused by the high harmonics in the electric networks in residential and public buildings. Pozharnaya bezopasnost = Fire Safety. 2014. № 4. pp. 73–77. (In Russ.).
13. Пожароопасные ситуации в электроэнергетических сетях, обусловленные возникновением гармоник высшего порядка / Ю.И. Блинов, Е.В. Браун, Г.В. Боков, В.Г. Савельев // Пожарная безопасность. 2011. № 2. С. 73–77.
Blinov Yu.I., Braun E.V., Bokov G.V., Savelyev V.G. Fire-dangerous situations in the electrical power networks caused by appearance of harmonics of the higher order. Pozharnaya bezopasnost = Fire Safety. 2011. № 2. pp. 73–77. (In Russ.).
14. Naumov I.V., Podyachikh S.V., Yakupova M.A., Fedorinova E.S. Methodological Bases of the Fire Hazard Reduction in Internal and External 0.38 kV Electrical Networks with Unbalancing Power Consumption. Available at: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/1045/1/012145/pdf (accessed: November 1, 2025).
15. Влияние высших гармоник тока на режимы работы кабелей распределительной сети 380 В / В.Н. Тульский, И.И. Карташев, Р.Р. Насыров, М.Г. Симуткин // Промышленная энергетика. 2013. № 5. С. 39–44.
Tulskii V.N., Kartashev I.I., Nasyrov R.R., Simutkin M.G. The influence of current higher harmonics on the operation modes of cables in the 380 V distribution network. Promyshlennaya Energetika = Industrial Power Engineering. 2013. № 5. pp. 39–44. (In Russ.).
16. Оценка теплового режима кабеля, питающего нелинейную нагрузку / В.Н. Тульский, И.И. Карташев, М.Г. Симуткин, Р.Р. Насыров // Промышленная энергетика. 2012. № 7. С. 42–45.
Tulskiy V.N., Kartashev I.I., Simutkin M.G., Nasyrov R.R. Evaluating thermal regime of a cable supplying a non-linear load. Promyshlennaya Energetika = Industrial Power Engineering. 2012. № 7. pp. 42–45. (In Russ.).