D.I. Egorov, Chief Engineer, egorov@niigaz.ru AO «Giproniigaz», Saratov, Russia
Mathematical model of forecasting the resource of oil and gas pipeline sections at double frequency loading is proposed. Mathematical models of safety characteristics assessment for oil and gas pipelines are developed, the algorithm of forecasting their resource is created.
In relation to the reliability of pipelines the problem of resource assessment generally comes to prediction of the probability of structure elements trouble-free operation (characteristics of probability) depending on the possible modes and operation conditions. Reliability of the forecast more depends on a source of information about the reliability of the pipeline separate elements, and about the processes of loss of serviceability by them. Mathematical expectation of the random value determining duration of serviceability of technical conditions of each element should be considered the quantitative index of reliability of all the totality of structure elements.
In the reference literature the need of assessment of safe operation resource for oil and gas pipelines is substantiated on the basis of the calculated values of the admissible risks related with low-cyclic metal fatigue. At the same time, the issue of resource assessment through the theoretical coefficient of stresses concentration taking into account the level of hazard of defects at double frequency loading of oil and gas pipelines sections is not considered. The methods proposed in this article allows to calculate the coefficient characterizing metal damage during one cycle of structure elements loading, and on the basis of the obtained data to predict the resource of oil and gas pipeline section with identification of conditions of its safe operation.
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