The study considers the problem of improving the algorithm for assessing the failure probability of a process pipeline of gas condensate stabilization system of a hazardous production facility.
The failure probability assessment is one of the basic components of a risk-oriented approach to the inspection of technical devices. The inspection, in turn, is a tool to ensure integrity, which is a necessary condition for industrial safety.
According to the API RP 581 3rd Edition methodology, the equipment failure probability is assessed considering the degradation mechanism as well as design parameters and operating conditions. The generic failure frequency is a basic parameter of failure probability and determined for various types of equipment (vessels, tanks, pipelines) based on a vast volume of information on failures of the given type of equipment in the industry.
The analysis of the practical use of the failure frequency index has shown that all the methodologies considered recommend using actual values of failure frequency indices. At the same time, there are some limitations, including the missing necessary comprehensive information base.
A calculation model of dynamic registration of failures of technical devices aiming at the improvement of the algorithm of failure probability assessment based on the API RP 581 3rd Edition has been proposed. A detailed calculation procedure based on the suggested model has been provided; risk and inspection interval calculations have been performed as an example. The calculation results have been compared with conservative values; the increase of risk assessment objectivity using the dynamic model of failure frequency registration has been noticed.
Improving the algorithm for assessing failure probability based on the API RP 581 3rd Edition methodology positively affects the process of ensuring a high level of industrial safety, including the integrity of technical devices.
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