Annotation:
The objective of the study is to analyze the impact of fire duration on risks of fatalities and injuries among the population of Russia and metropolises based on the examples of Moscow and St. Petersburg.
Statistical fire indices provided by the «Fires» Federal Database for 2009–2021 have been studied. Retrospectively, the fires included ignitions. The impact of fire duration in minutes on fatalities, injuries, and the number of people rescued from fires has been analyzed. The risks of fatalities, injuries, and the probability of being rescued per 100 fires depending on fire duration have been calculated.
The maximum values of the number of fires (distribution mode) in Russia are within the interval of fire durations from 11 to 15 minutes, whereas for Moscow and St. Petersburg, it is from 6 to 10 minutes. This is due to faster fire detection, shorter distance from a fire and rescue department, and, consequently, faster arrival of fire brigades and start of firefighting, more advanced equipment of firefighting divisions, higher fire-resistance of facilities in metropolises, etc. The average annual conditional risk of fatality in the fire for the Russian population was (2.06 ± 0.09)·10· fatalities/(fire·year), for Moscow and St. Petersburg, the risk was 1.6 and 2 times lower 1— (1.29 ± 0.13)·10–2 and (1.01 ± 0.06)·10–2 fatalities/(fire·year). The growth of risk of fatality depending on fire duration has been detected. The average annual conditional risk of injury in the fire for the Russian population was (2.20 ± 0.07)·10–2 injuries/(fire·year). For the Moscow and St. Petersburg population, the risk was (3.80 ± 0.35)·10–2 and (1.06 ± 0.05)·10–2 injuries/(fire·year). For Russia and St. Petersburg, a tendency of growing risk of injury depending on fire duration has been detected; for Moscow, it is an inverted U-curve. The increasing dynamics of injury and fatality risk ratios depending on fire duration have been identified, with the most acute increase in Moscow. The average annual probability of being rescued from fire for the Russian population was (12.9 ± 1.2)·10–2 persons/(fire·year), for Moscow and St. Petersburg, it was (11.7 ± 1.4)·10–2 and (16.3 ± 2.1)·10–2 persons/(fire·year). A tendency to increase the number of rescued persons at longer fire durations has been detected in Russia, Moscow, and St. Petersburg.
The studies demonstrate that greater organizational and technological capabilities to reduce risks of fatalities and injuries in fires are specific to Russia and metropolises.
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