A fundamental transformation of the industrial safety management paradigm from a deterministic to a probabilistic and scholastic approach requires a reevaluation of the methodological basics of project management within the framework of risk and uncertainty theory. This study develops the conceptual apparatus of the integration of F. Knight’s classic risk theory, D. Bernoulli’s expected utility theory, R. Coase and O. Williamson's transaction cost theory, and the modern Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBoK) methodology developed and supported by the US Institute of Project Management in order to form a comprehensive system for managing the modernization of occupational safety systems at hazardous production facilities.
Based on the synthesis of neoclassical and institutional economic theories, a modified function for optimizing a safety project portfolio that considers not only direct economic effects but also the reduction of transactional costs resulting from inter-organizational coordination in the industrial safety system has been developed. The empirical verification of the model using data from the Federal State Statistics Service and the Federal Service for Labor and Employment for the period 2017–2024 has confirmed the statistical significance of institutional environment factors in determining the efficiency of modernization projects.
The economic and mathematical model proposed is based on modifying H. Markowitz's portfolio theory, incorporating occupational safety risk components as a specific organizational asset that generates a negative correlation with traditional production risks. Calculations considering current macroeconomic conditions of September 2025 (Central Bank key rate 18 %, medium-term OFZ yield 14.5 %) demonstrate the potential achieving a Pareto-optimal state with safety investments at the level of 2.8–3.2 % of the enterprise's gross revenue, which corresponds to best practices in developed economies and ensures a 37–42 % reduction in integral risk while maintaining the profitability of core activities.
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