Calculation of the Escalation Probability as a Solution to the Inverse Problem of Predicting the Reliability of the Man-machine Systems



References:
  1. On the approval of the Federal state educational standard of higher education in the field of training 20.03.01 Technosphere safety (bachelor degree level): Order of the Ministry of Education and Science dated March 21, 2016 № 246 (as amended on July 13, 2017). Available at: https://www.timacad.ru/sveden/files/200301.pdf (accessed: September 25, 2019). (In Russ.).
  2. Volokhina A.T. Ensuring industrial safety at gas main transport enterprises based on the competency-based approach to personnel. Neftegazovoe delo = Oil and Gas Business. 2017. № 5. pp. 67–91. (In Russ.).
  3. Funtikova N.V., Kuz E.V. Professionally significant qualities as a factor of effectiveness of professional actions of a future specialist. Vestnik Luganskogo natsionalnogo universiteta imeni Vladimira Dalya = Vestnik Lugansk Vladimir Dahl national university. 2018. № 4 (10). pp. 103–106. (In Russ.).
  4. Melnikova D.A., Sumarchenkova I.A., Chernysheva E.A. Reducing the influence of the human factor on the state of technosphere safety. Izvestiya Samarskogo nauchnogo tsentra RAN = Izvestiya of the Samara Russian Academy of Sciences scientific center. 2016. Vol. 18. № 4–5. pp. 910–914. (In Russ.).
  5. Tskhadaya N.D., Zakharov D.Yu. Improvement of the procedure for professional selection of the personnel for work with the increased risk. Zapiski Gornogo instituta = Journal of mining institute. 2018. Vol. 230. pp. 204–208. (In Russ.).
  6. Boschee P. Improving Human Performance: Tackling the Challenges to Develop Effective Safety Cultures. Society of Petroleum Engineers. 2014. Vol. 3. Iss. 3. June 1. DOI:10.2118/0614-0018-OGF
  7. Nicolais N. De, Vadala R., Abate J., Olsen J., McHattie J. Enhanced Well Control Implementing Human Factors. Society of Petroleum Engineers. 2016. September 6. DOI: 10.2118/181035-MS
  8. James B.A. New Methodologies for Human Factors in Process Safety. Society of Petroleum Engineers. 2014. June 9. DOI: 10.2118/169907-MS
  9. Thorogood J.L., Lauche K., Crichton M., Pollard I., Hviid L.B., Verweijen B. Getting to Grips with Human Factors in Drilling Operations. Society of Petroleum Engineers. 2015. Vol. 67. Iss. 4. April 1. DOI: 10.2118/0415-0070-JPT
  10. Clepnev V.N., Maksimenko A.F. Basic principles of building the quality management system for the processes of prevention, localization and liquidation of consequences of accidents at the pipeline transport facilities. Nauka i tekhnologii truboprovodnogo transporta nefti i nefteproduktov = Science & Technologies: oil and oil products pipeline transportation. 2018. Vol. 8. № 4. pp. 456–468. (In Russ.).
  11. Vinogradova G.L., Perepelkin A.S. Reliability assessment of man-machine management decision system. Vestnik Ivanovskogo gosudarstvennogo energeticheskogo universiteta = Vestnik of Ivanovo State Power Engineering University. 2009. № 4. pp. 81–84. (In Russ.).
  12. Zakharov D.Yu. Improvement of the emergency response system taking into account the psychological aspects of the personnel actions management: thesis... Candidate of Technical Sciences. Ufa, 2017. 203 p. (In Russ.).
  13. Sergienko S.K., Bodrov V.A., Pisarenko Yu.E., Kapitsa M.S., Kononova V.N., Blinov Yu.Ya., Kostin A.N., Leonova A.B., Kuznetsova A.S., Rodina O.N., Kabachenko T.S., Enkova L.L., Denisova T.N., Strelkov Yu.K., Strokina A.N., Chernyshova O.N. Practical course on the engineering psychology and ergonomics: textbook for the universities. Moscow: Izdatelskiy tsentr «Akademiya», 2003. 400 p. (In Russ.).
  14. Zakharov D.Yu., Afanaseva I.V. Forecast of the reliability of human-machine system for assessment of the risks of developing emergency situations during transportation and storage of oil products. Izvestiya Komi nauchnogo tsentra UrO RAN = Bulletin of Komi scientific center UrO RAS. 2014. № 4 (20). pp. 87–90. (In Russ.).
  15. Vetoshkin A.G., Marunin V.I. Reliability and safety of technical systems: textbook. Penza: Izd-vo Penzenskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta, 2003. 129 p. (In Russ.).
  16. Keyn O.P., Klimova I.V. Reduction of Individual Risk for the Employee of Fuel Filling Stations with Building the Accident Logical Models. Bezopasnost Truda v Promyshlennosti = Occupational Safety in Industry. 2019. № 7. pp. 81–85. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.24000/0409-2961-2019-7-81-85
DOI: 10.24000/0409-2961-2019-11-54-59
Year: 2019
Issue num: November
Keywords : reliability human factor probability emergency escalation functional state chronic fatigue
Authors:
  • Zakharov D.Yu.
    Cand. Sci. (Eng.), Head Specialist, nashnex@bk.ru LLC «Gazprom PHG», Saint-Petersburg, Russia
  • Klimova I.V.
    Cand. Sci. (Eng.), Assoc. Prof., Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University, Saint Petersburg, Russian Federation
  • Remishevskaya K.V.
    Lead Specialist LLC «Gazprom VNIIGAZ», Razvilka, Russia
  • Tokareva S.A.
    Lead Economist Saint Petersburg State University of Economics, Saint-Petersburg, Russia