Calculation of the Indicators of the Risk of People Damage Considering the Variability of Their Presence in the Areas of Emergency Processes Impact at Hazardous Production Facilities


Risk indicators, as a rule, are integral values for certain recipients (people, equipment, buildings, and structures) considering the frequency and degree of their damage as the result of exposure to hazardous factors of possible accidents with the release of hazardous substances. Risk indicators are used for assessing the efficiency of the compensatory measures, new industrial and fire safety requirements, or the risk of deviations from them when developing special technical conditions, safety case for hazardous production facilities. The list of the main calculated risk indicators was formed back in the 1970s–1980s. For example, in the domestic and foreign practice, the following indicators of the risk of people death are used: potential risk (individual risk), collective risk (average rate of death), social risk (societal risk), individual risk (there is no foreign analogue). Overview of the approaches to the calculation of these indicators is given in the article, it is shown that they are generally accepted.

A new approach to the calculation of risk indicators is proposed, which allows to consider the location of people and the time of their stay in more detail.  Consider, in particular, dynamics of changes in the number of people at the facility, and in its vicinity during a given period, and the likelihood of people being in different places of the potential hazard zone at a particular point in time.  These innovations make it possible to consider, for example, presence of the employees in different places during the working day, temporary gatherings of people during the day, for example, at the lunchtime in the canteen.

Example of performing calculations according to the presented methodology is given. Consistency of the obtained results is shown.

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DOI: 10.24000/0409-2961-2022-6-81-89
Year: 2022
Issue num: June
Keywords : hazardous production facility quantitative risk assessment individual risk social risk potential risk collective risk calculation of the death toll emergency processes