Quantitative Assessment of Emergency Risk: Analysis of Uncertainty

E.Yu. Kolesnikov, Cand. Sci. (Phys.-Math.), Assoc. Prof., e.konik@list.ru Volga Region State Technological University, Yoshkar-Ola, Russia


Under the conditions of absence of statistical stability of input parameters value, the uncertainty of the results of the quantitative risk assessment can be estimated by the interval methods. The article presents the assessment of two target metrics — affecting factors of the vapour cloud volumetric explosion at the loading (unloading) rack in case of motor petrol spillage. Calculations of the target metrics are given for the most dramatic of the eight possible options of accident — catastrophic destruction of the railway tank car. For the first time, the application of methods for minimizing computational uncertainty is shown which accompanies the interval calculations of accident consequences. To eliminate the unjustified intervals widening of the calculation results considering the parameters thermodynamic binding, the combination of R. Moore methods and global optimization was used. The given temperature range of atmospheric air is divided into 26 sub-intervals of 1 K width. Calculations of the temperature-dependent values are performed for each of the subintervals. As a result, an interval envelope of 26 received interval values is accepted. In addition, the affine-interval approach was used. The separate section of the article shows the performed analysis and quantitative assessment of uncertainty. The sources of incompleteness of the obtained estimates of the target metrics uncertainty are analyzed, the main factors that determine its significant magnitude are specified.


1. Metodicheskie osnovy po provedeniyu analiza opasnostey i otsenki riska avariy na opasnykh proizvodstvennykh obektakh: ruk. po bezopasnosti (Methodological Framework for Conducting Hazard Analysis and Accident Risk Assessment at Hazardous Production Facilities: Safety Guide). Ser. 27. Iss. 16. Moscow: ZAO NTTs PB, 2017. 56 p.
2. Kolesnikov E.Yu. Uncertainty of explison hazard quantitative assessment on the example of textile production. Bezopasnost truda v promyshlennosti = Occupational Safety in Industry. 2017. № 11. pp. 23–29.
3. Kolesnikov E.Yu. Quantitative assessment of emergency risk uncertainty. Accident scenario «Long-term evaporation of the spillage». Bezopasnost truda v promyshlennosti = Occupational Safety in Industry. 2014. № 8. pp. 78–84.
4. Rump S.M. INTLAB — INTerval LABoratory. In Tibor Csendes. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1999. pp. 77–104.
5. CPR-14E. Methods for the calculation of Physical Effects (Yellow book). 3rd Ed. Hague: VROM, 2005. 870 р.
6. SNiP 23-01—99. Stroitelnaya klimatologiya (SNiP 23-01—99. Construction climatology). Available at: http://docs.cntd.ru/document/1200004395 (accessed: December 1, 2017).
7. Metodika opredeleniya raschetnykh velichin pozharnogo riska na proizvodstvennykh obektakh (Methods for determining estimated fire risk values at production facilities). Available at: http://docs.cntd.ru/document/902170886 (accessed: December 1, 2017).
8. Pravila perevozok zhidkikh gruzov nalivom v vagonakh-tsisternakh i vagonakh bunkernogo tipa dlya perevozki neftebituma (Rules for transportation of bulk liquid loads in the tank wagons and bunker-type cars for petroleum bitumen transportation). Available at: http://meganorm.ru/Index2/1/4293801/4293801894.htm (accessed: December 1, 2017).
9. Grigoreva I.S., Meylikhova E.Z. Fizicheskie velichiny: sprav. (Physical Quantities: Reference Book). Moscow: Energoatomizdat, 1991. 1232 p.
10. Lenoir E.M., Davenport J.A. A Survey of Vapor Cloud Explosions. Second Update. 26th Loss Prevention Symposium. New York: American Institute of Chemical Engineers, 1992.
11. Raschet osnovnykh pokazateley pozharovzryvoopasnosti veshchestv i materialov: ruk. (Calculation of the Main Fire and Explosion Hazard Values of Substances and Materials: Manual). Moscow: VNIIPO, 2002. 77 p.
12. Posobie po primeneniyu SP 12.13130.2009 «Opredelenie kategoriy pomeshcheniy, zdaniy i naruzhnykh ustanovok po vzryvopozharnoy i pozharnoy opasnosti» (Manual on the Application of SP 12.13130.2009 «Determination of Categories of Premises, Buildings and Outdoor Installations on Explosion and Fire Hazard»). Moscow: VNIIPO, 2014. 147 p.
13. Pozharovzryvoopasnost veshchestv i materialov i sredstva ikh tusheniya: sprav. V 2 kn. Kn. 1 (Fire and Explosion Hazard of Substances and Materials and Their Extinguishing Agents: Reference Book. In 2 books. Book 1). Moscow: Khimiya, 1990. 496 p.
14. Akhmetov S.A., Gaysina A.R. Modelirovanie i inzhenernye raschety fiziko-khimicheskikh svoystv uglevodorodnykh sistem: ucheb. posobie (Modeling and Engineering Calculations of Physical and Chemical Properties of Hydrocarbon Systems: Textbook). Saint-Petersburg: Nedra, 2010. 128 p.
15. GOST R 51105—97. Topliva dlya dvigateley vnutrennego sgoraniya. Neetilirovannyy benzin. Tekhnicheskie usloviya (GOST R 51105—97. Fuels for internal combustion engines. Unleaded gasoline, Technical specifications). Available at: http://docs.cntd.ru/document/1200003570 (accessed: December 1, 2017).
16. Sharyy S.P. Konechnomernyy intervalnyy analiz (Finite-dimensional interval analysis). Available at: http://www.nsc.ru/interval (accessed: December 1, 2017).
17. Khimicheskaya entsiklopediya. V 5 t. T. 1 (Chemical Encyclopedia. In 5 volumes. Vol. 1). Moscow: Sovetskaya entsiklopediya, 1988. 623 p.
18. Posobie po opredeleniyu raschetnykh velichin pozharnogo riska dlya proizvodstvennykh obektov (Manual on the Definition of the Calculated Values of Fire Risk at the Production Facilities). Moscow: VNIIPO, 2012. 242 p.
19. Fizicheskaya entsiklopediya. V 5 t. T. 4 (Physical Encyclopedia, In 5 volumes. Vol. 4). Moscow: Sovetskaya entsiklopediya, 1994. 704 p.
20. Kolesnikov E.Yu. To the calculation of the mass rate of hazardous substances evaporation. Problemy analiza riska = Problems of Risk Analysis. 2011. Vol. 8. № 5. pp. 84–91.
21. Kawamura P.I., MacKay D. The Evaporation of Volatile Liquids. Journal of Hazardous Materials. 1987. Vol. 15. pp. 343–364.
22. Guidelines for chemical process quantitative risk analysis. 2nd Ed. New York: American Institute of Chemical Engineers, 2000. 744 p.
23. Metodika otsenki posledstviy avariynykh vzryvov toplivno-vozdushnykh smesey: ruk. po bezopasnosti (Methods for Assessment of Consequences of Fuel-air Mixtures Accidental Explosions: Safety Guide). Ser. 27. Iss. 09. Moscow: ZAO NTTs PB, 2016. 25 p.

DOI: 10.24000/0409-2961-2018-2-64-70
Year: 2018
Issue num: February
Keywords : accident uncertainty quantitative risk assessment interval analysis
  • Kolesnikov E.Yu.
    Kolesnikov E.Yu.
    Dr. Sci. (Eng.), Prof. of the Higher School of Technosphere Safety, Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University, Saint Petersburg, Russian Federation