Quantitative Assessment of Emergency Risk: Analysis of Uncertainty


E.Yu. Kolesnikov, Cand. Sci. (Phys.-Math.), Assoc. Prof., e.konik@list.ru Volga Region State Technological University, Yoshkar-Ola, Russia

Annotation:

Under the conditions of absence of statistical stability of input parameters value, the uncertainty of the results of the quantitative risk assessment can be estimated by the interval methods. The article presents the assessment of two target metrics — affecting factors of the vapour cloud volumetric explosion at the loading (unloading) rack in case of motor petrol spillage. Calculations of the target metrics are given for the most dramatic of the eight possible options of accident — catastrophic destruction of the railway tank car. For the first time, the application of methods for minimizing computational uncertainty is shown which accompanies the interval calculations of accident consequences. To eliminate the unjustified intervals widening of the calculation results considering the parameters thermodynamic binding, the combination of R. Moore methods and global optimization was used. The given temperature range of atmospheric air is divided into 26 sub-intervals of 1 K width. Calculations of the temperature-dependent values are performed for each of the subintervals. As a result, an interval envelope of 26 received interval values is accepted. In addition, the affine-interval approach was used. The separate section of the article shows the performed analysis and quantitative assessment of uncertainty. The sources of incompleteness of the obtained estimates of the target metrics uncertainty are analyzed, the main factors that determine its significant magnitude are specified.

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DOI: 10.24000/0409-2961-2018-2-64-70
Year: 2018
Issue num: February
Keywords : accident uncertainty quantitative risk assessment interval analysis
Authors:
  • Kolesnikov E.Yu.
    Kolesnikov E.Yu.
    Dr. Sci. (Eng.), Prof. of the Higher School of Technosphere Safety, Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University, Saint Petersburg, Russian Federation