On the Background Levels of Emergency Hazards at Hazardous Production Facilities


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Annotation:

The article presents the estimates of emergency hazards background levels at hazardous production facilities of oil and gas, oil refining, petrochemical industries, trunk pipelines, coal mining industry, mining enterprises, metallurgical industry, objects of production, storage and use of industrial explosives. All estimates for 2009–2018 are obtained based on the official data from Rostechnadzor about accidents and injuries rate at hazardous production facilities, as well as data from Rosstat on the average number of employees and the volume of industrial production in various sectors of the Russian industry. The above estimates of the background levels of emergency hazards are recommended for use when developing Safety Cases and Project Specific Technical Specifications for designing hazardous production facilities. Unfortunately, in the Russian practice of risk assessment, the background levels of emergency hazards at hazardous production facilities are determined by the statistically average value for a certain period. In these cases, it is proposed to use not the average value, but the pessimistic upper limit 95 % of the confidence interval for the sample of the values of relative accidents and injuries rate at hazardous production facilities recorded over the past five to ten years. When assessing emergency hazard, more informative and productive are not the point estimates, but the interval estimates not of absolute, but of relative accidents and injuries rate, as well as identified on them changes in the background levels of emergency hazards over the long period of time. It is inappropriate to assess safety of design and organizational and technical solutions only using simplified reduction models of the reference individual death in an accident. The observed long-term decrease in the background levels of emergency hazards in most branches of industries and transport indicates the relative stability, adequacy to threats and efficiency of the requirements for the system of ensuring industrial safety in Russia.

Annotation:

The article presents the estimates of emergency hazards background levels at hazardous production facilities of oil and gas, oil refining, petrochemical industries, trunk pipelines, coal mining industry, mining enterprises, metallurgical industry, objects of production, storage and use of industrial explosives. All estimates for 2009–2018 are obtained based on the official data from Rostechnadzor about accidents and injuries rate at hazardous production facilities, as well as data from Rosstat on the average number of employees and the volume of industrial production in various sectors of the Russian industry. The above estimates of the background levels of emergency hazards are recommended for use when developing Safety Cases and Project Specific Technical Specifications for designing hazardous production facilities. Unfortunately, in the Russian practice of risk assessment, the background levels of emergency hazards at hazardous production facilities are determined by the statistically average value for a certain period. In these cases, it is proposed to use not the average value, but the pessimistic upper limit 95 % of the confidence interval for the sample of the values of relative accidents and injuries rate at hazardous production facilities recorded over the past five to ten years. When assessing emergency hazard, more informative and productive are not the point estimates, but the interval estimates not of absolute, but of relative accidents and injuries rate, as well as identified on them changes in the background levels of emergency hazards over the long period of time. It is inappropriate to assess safety of design and organizational and technical solutions only using simplified reduction models of the reference individual death in an accident. The observed long-term decrease in the background levels of emergency hazards in most branches of industries and transport indicates the relative stability, adequacy to threats and efficiency of the requirements for the system of ensuring industrial safety in Russia.

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DOI: 10.24000/0409-2961-2019-10-50-56
Year: 2019
Issue num: October
Keywords : injury rate risk assessment accident rate background levels of emergency hazards
Authors: