Process of ensuring the electrical installations operation in the sectors of the of the Russian Federation economy is formed based on the implementation of measures being developed aimed at creating conditions for the technogenic safety system «human — electrical installation — environment». To justify the decisions made when choosing the best option from the existing ones, the theory of decision-making is used. Development of the promising options for building a safety system for the electrical installations, and the search for resources for the implementation of each of them is the main task of the study. With a significant number of criteria that determine the generalized indicator (integral risk), it is possible to get a best solution option. One of the stages of decision -making theory is to obtain predictive estimates. The forecast is carried out by analyzing the indicators of the human-machine system.
When predicting the integral hazard risk of electrical installations, it is required to consider the sources of hazards in the system in question, such as: incorrect, erroneous actions of the operator; emergency modes with the consequences of the occurrence of technogenic hazard; an abnormal combination of the environmental parameters other than the normalized values. The analysis of dependences of the technogenic hazard risk reflects a certain set of electrical installations, during the operation of which the deviations from the normal modes may occur — hazardous situations accompanied by the accidents, fires, death of people, which leads to corresponding damage. When compiling scenario options, it is possible to determine the trend in the development of a hazardous situation. To perform scenario forecasting, an algorithm for predicting the risk of technogenic hazard was built, based on which a hypothetical model of predictive estimate is compiled. Based on the results of a quantitative assessment of the integral risk, it is possible to determine numerical indicators of the probability of a hazardous situation occurrence, and the damage from a real hazardous situation.
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