Mathematical Modeling and Fire Risk Management by Linear Interpolation


The relevance of the set task to minimize the socio-economic risks associated with fires is shown in the article. Particular attention is paid to ensuring the safety of people in case of fires. A brief description of fire risks and their minimum requirements is given. Additionally, the dynamics of evacuation of people in horizontal areas during a fire is described.  Foreign experience on the issue under consideration is given. Also, the indicators of speed of evacuation and the intensity of movement of people are formed in accordance with the density of the human flow by the method of linear interpolation. Mathematical dependences are described concerning the density of human flows on the characteristics of premises, changes in the speed and intensity of the evacuation of people on the horizontal section. Mathematical dependencies are described by functions. At the same time, the article shows the need in developing the set issue in the future. The prospects for the development of scientifically based mathematical models describing the processes of evacuation of people in the event of fires at the facilities, regardless of their functional purpose, are considered. With further development, modeling is proposed. It is possible to develop such an express assessment on the proper provision of fire safety for people, based not on the mathematical calculations themselves, but on the tabular values that can be guided by the specialists who do not have special knowledge.

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DOI: 10.24000/0409-2961-2023-1-71-76
Year: 2023
Issue num: January
Keywords : fire risk fire safety people evacuation evacuation modeling mathematical dependencies human flow density people movement speed people evacuation intensity
  • Fomin A.I.
    Fomin A.I.
    Dr. Sci. (Eng.), Leading Researcher (AO «NTs VostNII», Kemerovo, Russia), Head of the Department (KuzSTU, Kemerovo, Russia)
  • Besperstov D.A.
    Besperstov D.A.
    Cand. Sci. (Eng.), Assoc. Prof. (Kemerovo State University, Kemerovo, Russia)
  • Ugarova I.M.
    Ugarova I.M.
    Candidate, (Kemerovo State University, Kemerovo, Russia)