The legislation of the Russian Federation established that the criteria for assigning control objects to the risk of harm should be formed based on the results of an assessment of the risk of harm. In the existing literary sources there are no mathematical models for determining the risk of harm (damage) as a result of fires in buildings for an integral assessment of the results of the fire authority activities. A mathematical model was developed and tested to determine the risk of causing harm (damage) as a result of fires in buildings on the territory of the subjects of the Russian Federation. This allows to evaluate the results of the activities of the main departments of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Russia by the subjects of the Russian Federation, and to determine the categories of the level of ensuring fire safety depending on the calculated value of the risk of harm.
As a criterion for assigning the subjects of the Russian Federation to different categories of the level of ensuring their fire safety, it is proposed to use the risk of causing harm (damage) as a result of fires in buildings located on the territory of the relevant subject of the Russian Federation. The values of the risk of harm for each subject of the Russian Federation are given.
It is established that the distribution of the subjects of the Russian Federation by categories of the level of ensuring fire safety significantly depends on the objectivity of statistical information about fires and the number of buildings on the territory of each subject. The assessment of the results of the activities of each of the 86 main departments of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Russia is given. Their rating is determined depending on the calculated value of the risk of causing harm, as a result of fires on the territory of the relevant subject of the Russian Federation.
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