Forecast of the Indicators of Injury Rate of the Employees of the Federal Fire-Fighting Service of EMERCOM of Russia

V.M. Belenkiy, Dr. Sci. (Eng.),, FGBOU of Academy of GPS of EMERCOM of Russia Moscow, Russia V.S. Putin, Cand. Sci. (Eng.) FGBU VNII GOCHS of EMERCOM of Russia, Moscow, Russia


Safety of production personnel is associated with many factors, including with the conditions and labor protection, incidence and injury rates, operational efficiency and effectiveness of preventive measures. To assess safety of the employees of the Federal Fire-Fighting Service of EMERCOM of Russia, it is required to accumulate the homogeneous statistic information of injuries indicators, and the possibility of predicting them at the specified time intervals. The regularity of the dynamic range of injury rate indicators can be estimated by selecting approximating functions that allow them to make their extrapolation with the specified probability of the root-mean-square error at the selected prediction intervals. To calculate such forecast using the method of least squares, the nonlinear exponential model of injury rates indicators of the employees of the Federal Fire-Fighting Service was built. The required condition for using this model is that the length of the used retrospective series would be at least 3 times bigger than the prediction interval.
The mean-square error of the forecast for each predicted period of time is estimated in accordance with the calculated root-mean-square deviation. Based on the statistics used, the regression model obtained assumes the decrease in the injury rates indicators of the employees of the Federal Fire-Fighting Service in 2018–2019 approximately by 13–15 %. At the same time, it is required quickly to accumulate the reliable data bases on working conditions, the causes of injury rates and death of fire fighters at the performance of the official duties, and to conduct regular and operative planning of the activities on injuries preventive measures. Such work should be carried out within the framework of the creation of the single all-Russian automated management system for safety and labor protection for the Federal Fire-Fighting Service.


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DOI: 10.24000/0409-2961-2018-10-56-59
Year: 2018
Issue num: October
Keywords : personnel safety industrial injuries least squares method approximation function forecast of injuries indicators retrospective series preventive measures