Express-method for Prediction of the Maximum Possible Contaminated Area with Harmful Substances that are Liquids under Normal Conditions


Annotation:

Important characteristics of the automated information management systems for decision-making in emergency situations are the accuracy and speed of the contaminated area simulation. In this regard, the vital tasks are the development of methods and algorithms that implement them, which allow to predict and visualize the maximum possible contaminated areas on the map chart with a minimum amount of basic data already at the initial stage of an accident. The express-method and algorithmic support for predicting maximum possible contaminated area were previously developed and presented depending on the amount of accidentally chemically hazardous and harmful substances with a relative error of not more than 9 % for compressed gases with a minimum amount of basic data. The express-method and algorithmic support for predicting maximum possible contaminated area was also developed, depending on the number of accidentally chemically hazardous substances, which are liquids under normal conditions, with a relative error of not more than 9 % with a minimum amount of basic data.

The results are presented concerning the development of express-method for predicting the depth of maximum possible contaminated area depending on the type, amount and thickness of the layer of the harmful substance, which is liquid under normal conditions, and the time passed since the beginning of an accident. Theoretical foundations of the express-method and the calculation results necessary for predicting contaminated area by the secondary cloud of harmful substances, which are liquids under normal conditions, are presented in the article. The method for predicting the depth of maximum possible contaminated area of harmful substances, which are compressed gases, is illustrated by examples.

The data base was created for calculating maximum possible contaminated area with harmful substances, which are liquids under normal conditions. This data base is integrated into previously developed software. The software allows to predict maximum possible contaminated area both as accidentally chemically hazardous substances, and harmful substances, which are compressed gases and liquids.

References:
  1. Kotov D.S. Methods and algorithmic support for predicting contaminated areas in emergency situations at chemically hazardous objects: thesis... Candidate of Technical Sciences. Minsk, 2018. 221 p. (In Russ.).
  2. Kotov D.S., Saechnikov V.A., Kotov S.G., Verkhoturova E.V. Patent RB. № 20359 MPK (2006) G 06F 7/60, G 06T 11/00, G 01W 1/00. Method for visualizing contaminated areas in changing meteorological conditions. Applied: January 4, 2000. Published: February 28, 2016. Bulletin № 4 (111).
  3. Saechnikov V.A., Zolotoy S.A., Kotov D.S., Novikov E.V., Kotov S.G. Substantiation of the Calculation and Visualization of the Contamination Zones in Changing Meteorological Conditions. Bezopasnost Truda v Promyshlennosti = Occupational Safety in Industry. 2017. № 8. pp. 37–43. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.24000/0409-2961-2017-8-37-43
  4. Kotov D.S., Zolotoy S.A., Kotov S.G., Novikov E.V., Saechnikov V.A. Calculation of Zones of Contamination with Liquid Harmful Substances in Changing Meteorological Conditions. Bezopasnost Truda v Promyshlennosti = Occupational Safety in Industry. 2018. № 11. pp. 68–74. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.24000/0409-2961-2018-11-68-74
  5. Kotov D.S., Zolotoy S.A., Kotov S.G., Novikov E.V., Saechnikov V.A. Calculation of Contamination Zones by the Compressed and Liquefied Harmful Substances in Changing Meteorological Conditions. Bezopasnost Truda v Promyshlennosti = Occupational Safety in Industry. 2019. № 1. pp. 67–70. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.24000/0409-2961-2019-1-67-70
  6. Kulikov O.M. Information support for decision-making in the elimination of technogenic emergencies based on simulation of management scenarios: thesis... Candidate of Technical Sciences. Ufa, 2002. 150 p. (In Russ.).
  7. Efremova O.A. Information processing system for preventing and eliminating the consequences of emergencies of the territorial level based on GIS technologies: thesis... Candidate of Technical Sciences. Ufa, 2002. 219 p. (In Russ.).
  8. Smorodinova T.M. Emergency management based on fuzzy cognitive technologies: thesis... Candidate of Technical Sciences. Ufa, 2005. 164 p. (In Russ.).
  9. Yamalov I.U. Decision-making support for emergency management based on cognitive and dynamic models: thesis... Doctor of Technical Sciences. Ufa, 2007. 352 p. (In Russ.).
  10. Gabrichidze T.G. Integrated multi-stage security system for critical, potentially hazardous objects: thesis... Doctor of Technical Sciences. Izhevsk, 2008 406 p. (In Russ.).
  11. Bezhaeva O.Ya. Operational management of the process of eliminating high-speed emergencies based on dynamic models: thesis... Candidate of Technical Sciences. Ufa, 2004. 162 p. (In Russ.).
  12. Kotov D.S., Zolotoy S.A., Kotov S.G., Novikov E.V., Saechnikov V.A. Express-Method for Predicting the Maximum Possible Contamination Zone with Harmful Substances that are Compressed Gases. Bezopasnost Truda v Promyshlennosti = Occupational Safety in Industry. 2019. № 7. pp. 60–66. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.24000/0409-2961-2019-7-60-66
  13. RD 52.04.253—90. Methodology for predicting the extent of contamination with high-toxic substances in case of accidents (destructions) at chemically hazardous objects and transport. Available at: http://docs.cntd.ru/document/1200007358 (accessed: June 1, 2019). (In Russ.).
  14. Kotov D.S., Saechnikov V.A., Kotov S.G., Verkhoturova E.V. Theoretical fundamentals of the express-method for determining contaminated areas in case of accidents at chemically hazardous objects. Elektronika-info = Electronics-info. 2012. № 7. pp. 73–75. (In Russ.).
  15. GOST 5855—78. Reagents. N, N-dimethylaniline. Technical specifications. Available at: http://www.internet-law.ru/gosts/gost/15025/ (accessed: June 1, 2019). (In Russ.).
  16. Gurvich Ya.A. Reference book of a young apprentice-chemist. Moscow: Khimiya, 1991. pp. 143. (In Russ.).
  17. Amelin A.G. Sulfuric acid production. Moscow: Khimiya, 1967. pp. 438. (In Russ.).
  18. Sulfur trioxide. Available at: https://www.safework.ru/content/cards/RUS1202.HTM (accessed: June 1, 2019). (In Russ.).
  19. GOST 2062—77. Reagents Hydrobromic acid. Technical specifications. Available at: http://standartgost.ru/g/%D0%93%D0%9E%D0%A1%D0%A2_2062-7777 (accessed: June 1, 2019). (In Russ.).
DOI: 10.24000/0409-2961-2019-12-75-83
Year: 2019
Issue num: December
Keywords : harmful substance contamination zone maximum possible contamination zone liquid secondary cloud
Authors:
  • Kotov D.S.
    Cand. Sci. (Eng.), Acting Academic Secretary Scientific and Engineering Republican Unitary Enterprise, «Geoinformation Systems», Minsk, Republic of Belarus
  • Zolotoy S.A.
    Cand. Sci. (Eng.), Director Scientific and Engineering Republican Unitary Enterprise, «Geoinformation Systems», Minsk, Republic of Belarus
  • Kotov S.G.
    Cand. Sci. (Eng.), Assoc. Prof., Academic Secretary, kotov.sergei.g@gmail.com Scientific and Practical Center of the State Committee of Judicial Expertise of the Republic of Belarus, Minsk, Republic of Belarus
  • Novikov E.V.
    Cand. Sci. (Eng.), Assoc. Prof., Director Institute of the up-to-date technologies of communication, Minsk, Republic of Belarus
  • Sayechnikov V.A.
    Dr. Sci. (Phys.-Math.), Assoc. Prof., Head of the Department Belarusian State University, Minsk, Republic of Belarus