Assessment and Optimization of Actions on Cascade Risk Reduction based on Modeling

P.G. Belov, Dr. Sci. (Eng.), Prof., MAI (NIU), Moscow, Russia


By the example of graph-analytic models of the specific cascade accident and the event initiating it, the possibility of a priori assessment of their risk and the effect from implementation of optimal solutions on risk reduction is demonstrated in the article. The object of the study is the plant for liquefied natural gas production, and the initiating event is the leak of the substance due to loss of structural integrity. In this case, the possibility of the formation of air-fuel mixture of the explosive concentration was taken into account, and the fragments and compression wave from probable explosion, as well as the thermal and toxic effects of fire were considered the hazardous factors of the cascade accident.
Alternative solutions on risk reduction are modeled by the barriers on the way of occurrence of the initiating event and its development with a domino effect manifestation. Specific constructive-technological and organizational-technical solutions are proposed that are aimed at reducing the probabilities of occurrence of errors and unauthorized personnel actions, failures and equipment faults, and off-design external effects. The effect is estimated on reduction of the probability of the initiating event and reduction of the expected damage from the cascade accident.
When carrying out the calculations, the ARBITR software package was used to facilitate the quantitative assessment of the considered factors and recommendations. Collection of some part of the input data was simplified, which were necessary for the prediction of the absolute value of the cascade risk before implementation of proposals on its reduction. The latter is justified both by the fundamental impossibility of the accurate risk assessment for such a complicated process of manifesting the relevant sources, and by a higher reliability of forecasting those relative changes in cascade risk that do not go beyond the limits of risk real values.


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DOI: 10.24000/0409-2961-2018-11-32-40
Year: 2018
Issue num: November
Keywords : explosion fire damage probability flammable substance cost effect