Analysis of the Incident Pyramid to Assess the Expected Prevented Damage


Energy systems are the key elements of critically important infrastructures, as they provide the required quality of life for the population, as well as create the required conditions for the reliable functioning of various sectors of the economy. One of the priority tasks is to ensure the safe functioning of such systems, while in recent years considerable attention is paid to proactive methods of ensuring safety. Within the framework of these methods, the main efforts are aimed at early identification of violations and deviations in the operation or maintenance of the facility.  Construction and use of the pyramid of incidents is one of the areas of the implementation of a proactive approach. Currently, the incident pyramids are used as a convenient form of graphical interpretation of statistical data, as well as one of the tools for ensuring the safety of hazardous production facilities. 
The analysis of statistical data on incidents and detected violations at energy facilities is presented in the article. The performed analysis allowed to construct the corresponding pyramids of incidents for industrial and occupational safety, and also to reveal that the ratio between the levels of the pyramid significantly depends on the specific type of system or energy facility. The possibility is shown concerning the use of the pyramid of incidents to assess the direct and indirect expected prevented damage in case of elimination of the identified violations. The examples are given related to the assessment of the amount of prevented damage for the energy facilities, and the practice of using this index as one of the indicators of the efficiency of inspection control activities in the oil and gas industry is described.

1. Ponomarenko D.V., Lesnykh V.V., Bochkov A.V. Modern approach to monitoring of industrial safety for hazardous production facilities. Problemy analiza riska = Issues of Risk Analysis. 2018. Vol. 15. № 1. pp. 6–17. (In Russ.) DOI: 10.32686/1812-5220-2018-15-1-6-17
2. Heinrich H.W. Industrial accident prevention: A scientific approach. 4th Ed. New York: McGraw-Hill Inc., 1959. 480 p.
3. Manuele F.A. Reviewing Heinrich: Dislodging two myths from the practice of safety. Professional Safety. 2011. pp. 52–61. Available at: (accessed: December 11, 2022).
4. Marshal P., Hirmas A., Singer M. Heinrich's pyramid and occupational safety: A statistical validation methodology. Safety Science. 2018. Vol. 101. pp. 180–189. DOI: 10.1016/j.ssci.2017.09.005
5. Bird F.E., Germain G.L. Damage Control: New Horizon in Accident Prevention and Cost Improvement. American Management Association, 1966. 176 р.
6. Gindina S.I., Khomyakova V.S. Pyramidal assessment of occupational injuries as a basis for choosing tools for occupational safety management at enterprises. Ekologiya. Risk. Bezopasnost: materialy Vseros. nauch.-prakt. konf. (Ecology. Risk. Safety: materials of the All-Russian scientific-practical conference). Kurgan: Kurganskiy gosudarstvennyy universitet, 2020. pp. 233–235. (In Russ.).
7. Mawer Chris. Effective Process and Facility Safety of Key Performance Indicators. Bezopasnost Truda v Promyshlennosti = Occupational Safety in Industry. 2017. № 8. pp. 44–48. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.24000/0409-2961-2017-8-44-48
8. Dontsov S.A., Aganov A.A., Ivakhnyuk G.K., Drozdova L.F. New in the evaluation and accounting of microtrauma in machine-building enterprises. XXI vek: itogi proshlogo i problemy nastoyashchego plyus (XXI century: Resumes of the Past and Challenges of the Present plus). 2020. Vol. 9. № 4 (52). pp. 136–139. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.46548/21vek-2020-0951-0026
 9. Lesnykh V., Lukyanchikov M., Timofeeva T. Prevented Damage as Efficiency Indicator of Inspection and Control Activity. Proceedings of the 31st European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2021). Anger, 2021. pp. 1200–1205. DOI: 10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_098-cd 
10. Safety performance indicators — Process safety events — 2019 data — Fatal incident and high potential event reports.  Available at: (accessed: December 11, 2022).
11. Safety performance indicators — 2020 data. Available at: (accessed: December 11, 2022).
12. Timofeev S.S. Modern approaches to the estimation of economical losses from accidents at production. Vestnik Irkutskogo gosudarstvennogo tehnicheskogo universiteta = Proceedings of Irkutsk State Technical University. 2009. № 4 (40). pp. 34–40. (In Russ.).
 13. Guidelines for the classification of technogenic events in the field of industrial safety at hazardous production facilities of the oil and gas complex: a safety guide: Order of Rostechnadzor dated January 24, 2018, № 29. Available at: (accessed: December 11, 2022). (In Russ.).
14. Lukyanchikov M.I., Lesnykh V.V. On One Approach to Assessing the Efficiency of Inspection and Control Activities. Bezopasnost Truda v Promyshlennosti = Occupational Safety in Industry. 2020. № 11. pp. 63–68. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.24000/0409-2961-2020-11-63-68
DOI: 10.24000/0409-2961-2023-1-42-47
Year: 2023
Issue num: January
Keywords : safety efficiency assessment incident pyramid inspection and control activity proactive approach prevented damage energy systems
  • Lukyanchikov M.I.
    General Director OOO Gazprom gaznadzor, Moscow, Russia
  • Lesnykh V.V., Dr. Sci. (Eng.), Prof., Adviser to Director General OOO Gazprom gaznadzor, Moscow, Russia, Professor of the Department RUDN University, Moscow, Russia
  • Nemchin Yu.V.
    Deputy General Director (Gazprom Gaznadzor LLC, Moscow, Russia)
  • Timofeeva T.B.
    Cand. Sci. (Eng.), Assistant Professor State University of Management, Moscow, Russia